Wednesday, November 13, 2013

The Fantasy Footballfolk Weekly Forecast "Sit & Starts Week #11"

Week 10 nailed QBs. 2/3 on RBs. WRs 0/3. TEs I’m taking 2/3 even though some could argue Fleener was ehhh but if I get 6-9 pts from TE spot every week I’m happy (minus Graham and Gronk of course—but that goes without saying because they probably cost you a high draft pick). I will admit this is tough. You try to put the best team out there on paper every week and it doesn’t necessarily always work out. Players exceed or disappoint. It happens. I always tell people fantasy is 60% luck vs 40% skill. 40% skill that the team you develop gets 60% lucky week in and week out. Follow me on twitter for questions/comments/concerns @Bakosw for the 40% skill part and hope we get lucky. 

Week 11 Fantasy Football Starts 
by Bill Bakos


1. Russell Wilson (vs MIN) – Ride the Wilson train! Doug Baldwin has stepped in nicely for Sidney Rice. Percy Harvin back is an added bonus. Defenses can’t cheat when Lynch is in the backfield (LOVE Christine Michael if Lynch was to ever go down—pick him up if you are looking for a lottery ticket). Wilson can beat teams in the air and on the ground.

2. Case Keenum (vs OAK) – Imagine the statistics Andre Johnson would have if they threw the fade to him in the end zone earlier in his career. Yes only 35 yds but 2 touchdowns will make any owner happy.  Keenum is young and does make turnovers but should torch a soft Oakland secondary.

3. Tom Brady (@ CAR) – Crazy that I even mention him as I try to avoid the obvious choices (Manning, Brees, Stafford—DUH). Brady, once elite, has had his share of struggles. Blame young receivers, blame play calling, whatever. Healthy Amendola (as of now haha), healthy Gronk, improving Dobson, Vereen back, Ridley not fumbling all improve TB12. Carolina’s defense is tough and many of you may sit Brady but I firmly believe you can never sleep on him, especially after a bye week.

Running Backs 

1. Alfred Morris (@ PHI) – Ground and pound.  NFC East battle. RGIII playing better. Philly #1 rush offense and a freakish Nick Foles right now will lead Washington to run the ball, move the chains, and keep Philly’s offense off the field. Yes I think Foles is still boom or bust but no reason to gamble here. Washington runs the ball this week.

2. Andre Brown (vs GB) – He really showed us who the RB1 is in New York last week. 30 carries for 115 and a td. I was never a believer in Hillis. Wilson on IR. NYG somehow still alive for playoff picture. GB is in a tough spot due to injuries. Brown will get his touches.

3. Ryan Mathews (@ MIA) – Miami’s run defense is terrible. Yes Mathews loses receptions to Woodhead but Miami is also a bad bad team. SD should handle them easily and run a lot in this one. I look for another 100 yd game from Mathews. (Sub note every year except this year I personally have drafted Ryan Mathews. And every year he has let me down. Of course he is having a good year this year when not on my team. Now when I recommend a start… Back to being a Ryan Mathews mush??)

Wide Receivers

1. Pierre Garcon (@ PHI) – Averages 6 catches per week. He is RGIII’s #1 guy. Big and tough to cover. Last week he found the end zone (only 3rd time this season) but he’s too good to keep out of there. When a pass is needed RGIII looks and finds Garcon. Everyone knows it and still can’t stop it. 

2. TY Hilton (@ TEN) – Everyone’s favorite flavor of the week. What’s not to like? 31 targets in 3 games since Wayne went down. 16 catches and 3 tds. Even in a blowout loss last week to StL he got garbage yards and catches. Luck’s #1 guy continues his stride.

3. Victor Cruz (vs GB) – Call it a hunch. Cruz torches GB every year. Even in a down year for him (I blame Eli) he’s arguably a top 10 WR. GB’s secondary is weak. I predict salsa-ing this weekend in New Jersey.

Tight Ends

1. Jordan Cameron (@ CIN) – Off game 2 weeks ago (1 catch on 5 targets) but Cleveland had a bye week to fix it. Only he and Josh Gordon exist on the offense. He will be thrown to this weekend. A lot. Especially in the red zone if Cleveland expects to score.

2. Greg Olsen (vs NE) – New England has covered well all season on defense. I suspect they will be focusing on stopping Newton from running (possibly keeping a LB in as a spy?) and Smith over the top which will open Olsen in the middle. 

3. Scott Chandler (vs NYJ) – Had 5 for 79 and a td vs NYJ last meeting. Coming off 2 sub par performances I roll him out. EJ Manuel likes him. He’s security on a check down and Buffalo is kind of limited on offense as is with Stevie Johnson up in the air and the CJ Spiller pendulum. Chandler gets his looks and I predict a td from him this week.

Week 11 Fantasy Football Sits 
by +Fantasy Football Beasthouse Senior Writer Juston Lonero (@lonero_Justin)


1. Andrew Luck(@Tennesee) Fantasy football is a game of number's plain,and simple.  Faith would tell us Luck will bounce back week 11 against the Titans, but the number's tell a different story.  Luck will be on the road, on Thursday night, playing a team that has only given up 8 touchdowns in the air,in 9 games.  The loss of Reggie Wayne is starting to show.  There are ten better options week 10 at quarterback.

2. Terrelle Pryor(@Houston) Pryor would have a tough task if his knee wasn't causing issues week 11 at Houston.  He has thrown 8 interceptions and one touchdown in his last four games.  Without his ability to run around and make play's, he is mediocre at best.  I have very little hope for anyone Raider, excluding Rashad Jennings.

3. Joe Flacco(@Chicago) Joe cool stole a lot of money from the Baltimore Ravens in the off season.  Week 11 the Ravens will travel to Chicago and face the Bears.  The Bears will be without Peanut Tillman in their secondary.  Poor offensive line play and lack of superstar power have contributed to Flacco's poor play.  He is a QB 2 with limited upside going further.

Running Backs

1. Lamar Miller(vs. San Diego) Lamar Miller ran for a total of 2 yards week ten in a loss to the Buccaneers.  Owners are starting to lose faith in Miller who was highly regarded heading into the season.  The Chargers have only allowed 4 touchdowns all season to opposing running backs.  Going further, how could anyone still be able to trust the Dolphins running game?

2. Fred Jackson(vs. Jets) Fred Jackson's fantasy production is based on him reaching the end zone.  The fact he is 33 years old, and still plays at a high level is impressive. Fred-ex is a risky start,  playing in the same backfield as CJ Spiller.  Add in the Jets, who have had one of the best run defenses all season, and you have a guy that is a borderline flex play.  No one has allowed less yards, then the Jets on the ground this season.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew( vs. Arizona) Every fantasy owner in the planet has recently been excited about what they have seen from MJD. He is in a contract year and he plays on the worst team in football.  Week 11, at home, he will try to find room to run against a defense that has only allowed two touchdowns on the ground this season.  Every time Jones-Drew is plugged in a lineup it is either mediocrity, or bust.

Wide Receivers

1. Roddy White(@Tampa Bay) Roddy White became another aggravating, discouraging story for fantasy owners this season.  The good news is he is back, the bad news is its too late for some of us.  Last week he had a date with Richard Sherman, this week he gets to visit Revis Island.  Tread lightly this week, the rest of the way is more promising if you have him stashed.

2. Denarius Moore(@Houston) Another season in Oakland that bites the dust.  It is a common theme, when a quarterback struggles it has a trickle down effect on the rest of the team.  Just ask Larry Fitzgerald.  Terrelle Pryor's struggles are most of Moore's issues, aside from his drops.  The Texans continue to allow the fewest amount of yards to its opposing wide receivers.

3. Dwayne Bowe(@Denver) D-Bowe obviously has the fat cat syndrome.  He is paid, and his motivation is far less as high, as it was prior to his big pay day.  The Broncos did a fantastic job 10 ten shutting down Keenan Allen, and company.  It appears that Bowe will not face discipline for his off field garbage.  Considering how much teams have to throw against against Denver they are a middle of the road defense.

Tight Ends

1. Delanie Walker(@Indianapolis) Week 11 the Titans host the Colts on Thursday night football.  Despite having his best game of the season last week.  Walker faces a Colts team that is stingy against tight ends.  The Colts have only allowed 24 receptions to tight ends, in 9 contest's this season.

2. Heath Miller(vs.Detroit) Miller is as dependable as a second, or third tier fantasy tight end gets.  His recent cohesiveness issues with Big Ben continue, only having one reception last week.  Detroit has only allowed (1) touchdown this year to a tight end.  He is still recovering from a triple ligament tear, and his production concurs.

3.Tony Gonzalez(@Tampa bay) Week 10 the Dolphins took tight end Tim Wright out the game plan.  They may try to do the same thing with the injured Tony Gonzalez.  With Roddy White back the heat might be off To-Go , but not if he is limping around. The Bucs kept Gonzalez in check week 7 limiting him to 3 catches for 29 yards.