Thursday, September 26, 2013

Week #4 The Fantasy Footballfolk Weekly Four Sit Em' or Start Em'

Rodney Dangerfield said " they tried to make Canada a country, and nobody showed up".  Very similar to the production of many, regular, fantasy studs week three in the NFL.  Aside from my quarterback starts, Chris Johnson, and Alfred Morris, many players had pedestrian effort's.  The beauty of Fantasy Football is that good players on bad teams are often the most dependable.  Cecil Shorts and Pierre Garcon can attest to that statement.  My weekly players are often middle tier players, that have the potential to break out, with some studs sprinkled in the mix.  I think the element of surprise, and mystique are what keep people intrigued season after season in  Fantasy land. and dont forget to follow me on twitter here: @lonero_justin

 Week 4 'starts

Week #4 Quarterback - Start EM's

1. Ben Roethlisberger- Big Ben was faced with tremendous pressure week three at home against the Chicago Bears.  Despite being sacked three times Ben threw for 406 yards, and two touchdowns.  Week four he will face a Vikings team that is twenty ninth in the league in total defense, giving up almost 430 yards a game.  Lets see how they play in London.

 2. Tony Romo- Week three was the Demarco Murray show against the Rams, but Tony Romo still had three touchdown passes.  Week 4 he will face the San Diego Chargers who give up more passing yards per game then anyone.  Look for the Tony Romo, Dez Bryant show in San Diego on Sunday.  Who knows with the Cowboys.

3. Joe Flacco- Geno Smith carved Buffalo week three on the road.  Bilal Powell ran Wild as well.  Joe Cool  is building a strong foundation with Torrey Smith.   This is purely a matchup start this week.  A-Rod, and Cam are on the bye, I think Flacco will flourish against a Buffalo secondary that is decimated by injury.  Who knows what Ray Rice's status will be, but if he doesnt play they could throw even more.

4. Alex Smith- Alex Smith manages games and keeps out of trouble.  That is great as a leader of a team but confusing for a fantasy owner.  We haven't seen him hit the over paid Dwayne Bowe at all this year.  Week four he will see the New York Giants, at home, who have given up seven touchdowns in the air already this season.  Im waiting anxiously for the Bowe, Smith relationship to form, and this might be the week it happens.

Honorable mention: Ryan tannehill, Ck 7, Phillip Rivers

Week #4 Running Back - Start EM's

1. Bernard Pierce/ *Ray Rice- Bernard Pierce is the best handcuff in the NFL.  Week four he has the luxury of facing a team in the Buffalo bills who are allowing 155 yds/G on the ground.  Pierce is a work horse who can do it all.  I like Flacco and Pierce this week.   His value is predicated on Ray Rice's health.   He is a guy the Ravens trust, averaging five yards per carry last season.

2. Frank Gore- Did you see what Demarco murray did against the Rams last week? One hundred and seventy five yards, and a touchdown.  Its too bad he cant play them every week.  Frank Gore was visibly frustrated with Jim Harbaugh after getting pounded by the Colts at home.  He totaled over one hundred yards of offense and was still angry about his usage.  Ck7 is having difficulty finding trustworthy wide receivers, which means the Niners might have to incorporate Gore and the running game more.  Week four the Niners hit the road to face the Rams.  Expect a solid Thursday night from Gore.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew- Dont ask me why but I have a hunch that we are in for An MJD party sunday against Indianapolis.  The Colts are seventh in the league in rushing yards allowed.  MJD is getting healthier by the day, and his work load is increasing gradually.  I will take seventy five yards and a touchdown.

4. Darren Mcfadden- Lets be honest there hasn't been a bigger underachiever at running back in the NFL in a long time since DMC.  The good news is, he is in a contract year and plays on another horrible team.  Every week he has an opportunity to shine.   Week three he rushed and threw a touchdown against arguably the best team in the league.  Week four at home he faces the Redskins, who like the Raiders are down right pitiful.  A healthy Darren Mcfadden is a dangerous weapon, but that is roughly, only half of the time.  This is his second appearance on my ' Sit' section.  Im waiting for him to go bananas.

Honorable mention: Matt Forte,Bilal Powell

Week #4 Wide Receiver - Start EM's

1.  Antonio Brown- It is only fair to pair him up with Big Ben as one of my favorite,second tier,type of players this week.  The Vikings secondary made Josh Gordon look like Jerry Rice week three.  Antonio Brown is a game changer and the only star on the Steelers offense.  He will display his talent across the pond in England on a big stage.  Two bad teams searching for a win.  I doubt another almost two hundred yard game,but he should lead the team in targets, and receptions.

2. Wes Welker- He hauled in seven passes,for eighty four yards,and a touchdown Monday in a blowout against the Raiders. Week four he faces an Eagles defense who has been owned by opposing slot receivers.  He is the best slot receiver in the game, and his elite numbers will continue.  This is one offense where all the studs get a piece of the pie.  Peyton Manning is going to have a field day and Wes will be a key factor.

3. Torrey Smith- The consistency is starting to show with Joe Cool and Torrey Smith.  He has led the team in targets in consecutive weeks but has been kept out of the end zone.  Much like Antonio Brown in Pittsburgh, Torrey Smith is the top play maker at wide receiver for his team.  The touchdowns will come like homer's do in baseball.  Lets just relax and watch him set career highs in receptions and receiving yards.  Week four he will showcase his talent against Buffalo. The Bills have given up more 40+ yard plays then anyone.

4. Marques Colston- Lets face it when we think Saints, we think Jimmy Graham.  When you think steady, Colston has to be at the top.  Week four the Dolphins come to town who are generous when it comes to allowing receiving yards (280/G).  He has between 63 and 71 yards in all three games this season.  I can see a 70 yards and a touchie.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Dobson, DeSean Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins

Week #4 Tight End - Start EM's

1. Antonio Gates- People gambled on him in the draft and he hasn't disappointed.  He has showed shades of his old self through three weeks, and I'm convinced he still has more to show.   He found the end zone sunday for the first time this year.  Gates has a good matchup against the Cowboys sunday.  Maybe this touchdown trend will continue.  He is a must start weekly, expect five catches , seventy yards and maybe another touchdown.

 2. Jason Witten- Week three Jason Witten led the Cowboys in targets against the Rams.  His numbers have been pedestrian thus far,but that could change week four against the generous Chargers secondary.  Expect a good week from Witten who is only averaging fifty yards a game.  He is still one of the best tight ends in football.

3. Coby Fleener- People forget that Coby Fleener was Andrew Luck's tight end at Stanford.  He is now the only receiving tight end the Colts have.  He vanished early last week against San Francisco, but this week he gets to play the Jaguars.  Its a perfect week to ease in newly acquired Trent Richardson, so Im not saying he will be Shannon Sharpe.  But keep an eye on this kid for the future, the Colts team is now loaded, and balanced on offense.  He is a top ten tight end this week, for whatever thats worth now a days.

4.  Jordan Cameron- Cameron was a week one " start"  in my column.  He has become an every week starter in fantasy football.  A sleeper at one point, to arguably second behind Jimmy G as the leagues best tight end.  Cameron epitomizes " safety blanket".  A guy that can bail out poor quarterback play.  I expect solid numbers week four against the Bengals.  This might be the best time to trade him.  His stock is as high as it will get.

NFL Week # 4 2013 Fantasy Football Sit EM's' by: Eric Allen (@MrEaSports247)

Week 3 Recap:

Week 3 was an  overall successful week with the exception of Mr. "Where ya Been" Antonio Brown.  
QB’s:  Andrew Luck played well for NFL standards but not fantasy as the Colts ran the ball the majority of the game.  Matt Ryan also kept up his middle of the pack numbers and finished 21st among QB’s last week.   Terrell Pryor was actually the best fantasy QB of my sits last week and if it wasn’t for his injury in the 4th he might have reached higher than 19th overall.  
Grade: A
RBs: My RB’s last week were all homeruns and they were also guys that you should consider burying deep on your roster or dropping them completely.  Ryan Matthews, Chris Ivory, Pierre Thomas/Mark Ingram, and Montee Ball all had high hopes coming into this season, and thus far are not even worthy of a flex spot on a BYE week unless things take a major turn.
Grade:  A
WR’s:  As I previously mentioned Antonio Brown finally had a game where he played like we’ve been waiting for.  Between last season and the 1st 2 weeks of this season, Brown has not lived up to his expectations.  I will be interested to see if he can follow up with another performance considering how bad the Steelers have looked.   The rest of the WR’s from week 3 failed to gain over 100 yds combined.
Grade:  C  (only so low because Antonio Brown WENT OOOOFFFFF!)
TE’s: Week 3 TE’s also had a poor performance.  Fred Davis has finally been removed from all offensive game plans and literally saw 5 snaps all game. Dallas Clark, Owen Daniels, Tyler Eifert, and Davis also failed to reach 100 yds combined in week 3. 
Grade: A

Week 4 is when you really need to start focusing on the picks we are providing you.  Injuries are piling up as well as BYE weeks for your everyday starters.  These weeks are important because you want to keep your points as high as possible when key players are out.  Some of our mentioned players will either be deep on your bench or available for pick up.  Our research is geared to point you in the right direction.

Week #4 Quarterback - Sit EM's

1. Sam Bradford – Bradford came out of the gates like a man on a mission.  Jeff Fisher has the Rams loaded with weapons and they were looking like a major threat in the NFC West.  Like always, people get excited and think what happens now will be forever.  Well, look closely at Bradford’s numbers.  His avg pass attempts are going for a measly 6.4 yards per.  Bradford’s numbers have also been on a steady decline and things only get tougher as teams have film on your new offense.  This week the Rams face one of the league’s toughest D’s (SF). Mind you,  SF’s  D typically plays better than they’ve shown lately, but they know the Rams as wells as anyone.
2. Russell Wilson -  Whenever the Hawks have faced a legit defense this season they’ve relied heavily on the run game.  Last week Wilson went up against one of the leagues worst teams in JAX and this might have been a confidence booster for Wilson.  However Seattle faces Houson this week and they are the 2nd best pass defense behind who else but Seattle.  Look for a heavy workload for Lynch this week.
3. Eli Manning – The New York Football Giants are starting to look like the 3rd best football team in New York.  They can’t seem to do anything well.  Eli is under constant pressure, the run game is abysmal and the defense can’t stop anyone.  Eli faces KC this week and they’ve shown the ability to get to the QB at will.  Without a run game, teams are jamming the Giant’s receivers and getting at Eli.  Their only chance this week is balance and if KC goes up early it’s going to be even harder to run the ball.
4. Jay Cutler – Cutler has actually look ok this season.  The Bears could be one of the best all around teams in the NFL.  Cutler is getting the time he needs to make plays and the run game is definitely helping out.  However,  if you look at the fantasy numbers Jay Cutler is 19th overall and is even behind EJ Manuel.  Cutler is a “safe” pick this week, but there are a lot of different matchups you might want to looks at.

Week #4 Running Back - Sit EM's

1. Chris Johnson – CJ2K is actually starting to show some trust in his blockers and hitting the holes.  However, most of you drafted him to be a top RB and he has yet to hit the HR we expect from him.  Fantasy football is mostly won by TD’s and CJ can’t get to pay dirt.  I know you are looking at his matchup this week and licking your chops with the Jets.  Believe it or not the NYJ are 3rd in the NFL against opposing RB’s allowing a stymie 8.3 points in standard scoring.  The time might be now to look for a trade with CJ.  His yards are appealing and he still has the name that grabs attention of potential hope.
2. Knowshon Moreno – Moreno has been as much of a gamble as any this season.  Denver has showed that there is no true RB1 and who gets the goal line carries is as good of a dice roll as I’ve ever seen.  Last week Ronnie Hilman got the ball on the 1 yard line and took what most thought would be Moreno’s carry.   His huge game against the Giants might just have been a flash in the pan.
3. Stevan Ridley – With Brandon Bolden back and LeGarrette Blount getting a shocking amount of playing time, Ridley has done nothing this season.  He is another victim of a 3 headed monster and unless Belichick gets over Ridley’s early fumble woes he won’t be a reliable start unless you have a need for a flex spot.
4. Arian Foster – Foster is a wild card this week.  Heading into this season there was nothing but red flags surrounding Foster.  His health was a major concern considering his past workload.  He has yet to reach the century mark and only has 1 TD this season.  This week the Texans are up against Seattle and I expect Ben Tate to provide a lot of help this week.  It’s hard to do it, but if you have other favorable options, this might be the week to sit Foster

Week #4 Wide Receiver - Sit EM's

1. Larry Fitzgerald – Just a few weeks ago, we all thought Fitzy had his savior at QB.  Battling a hamstring injury has seemed to limit his production and this week he will find himself on an island that is dark and lonely.  REVIS ISLAND!  The Bucs have completely turned things around on defense and are 3rd in the league against opposing pass attacks.  Larry could be in for another rough one.
2. Andre Johnson -  AJ is another stud on my list this week.  (We don’t like stating the obvious.) As the week progresses we will find out more about his shin injury status and see if he is even active this week.  If he does play he will be blanketed by Richard Sherman who is showing he can keep with any of the league’s top wide outs.  However Sherman usually plays on one side of the field and Houston can move AJ around to get looks, but with a bum leg it will be hard to make the big plays.
3. Miles Austin – With the Cowboys running the ball more often and another hamstring issue with Miles, you can expect another small performance this week at SD.   Romo is locked in on Dez and Witten as usual, and the fewer times he throws the more likely he will go with his prized weapons.
4. Anquan Boldin – Boldin’s success seems to be rely heavily on Vernon Davis’ presence.  The 49ers are very depleted at wideout and TE with the off season losses of Crabtree to injury and Delanie Walker in free agency.  With Davis out Boldin is Caepernick’s only reliable weapon.  This enables teams to be able to smother Boldin and make him a non factor.  SF plays on a short week with a game this Thursday, and that could impact Davis’ return.  If Davis does play Boldin is a must start

Week #4 Tight End - Sit EM's

1. Brandon Myers – As I mentioned earlier the Giants have problems all over.  Myers goes up against the leagues 3rd toughest D against TE’s and based on his prior season with the Raiders, his track record isn’t too great against the Chiefs.  I’d look elsewhere as Myers is a bottom of the barrel candidate this week.
2. Jared Cook – The pass few weeks have been tough for Jared Cook.  Especially coming off his monster week 1 performance.   Bradford is definitely still looking for Cook, but he is lacking big play abilities as of late and has become more of a chain mover.  This week he has a tough matchup against the Niners.  The league is full of good TE’s and I recommend sitting Jared Cook based on your other options.  
3. Vernon Davis – Davis is battling a hamstring “strain” and for a 2nd straight week he will be a game time decision.  Luckily this week he is playing Thursday night and you have time to prepare for another week of uncertainty.  Davis has had limited practice this week, which is a good sign, but be prepared instead of being left out to dry.  Even if Davis plays this week how productive can he be with such a lingering issue?  If he does play consider him a low end option.
4. Charles Clay -  After his week 2 performance, Charles Clay was one of the hottest waiver wire pick ups.  Well, last week he came back to Earth and we saw why overreacting to one particular week can skew our judgment.  Not only has only had one good week, but he faces a surprisingly tough Saints D this week.  NO is 7 against TE’s this season.   If you look some of the top teams against TE’s this year you will notice a trend.  Most have a superior TE on their team.  This allows them to practice everyday against top talent and it prepares them for the usual mismatches TE’s present.