Saturday, August 24, 2013

2013 Fantasy Football PPR Draft Strategy & Tips by: @lonero_justin

2013 Fantasy Football PPR Draft Strategy & Tips

When we think fantasy football draft, we immediately think of the studs:  Mr. Rodgers, AP, Jamaal Charles, Megatron, Jimmy Graham... But When I think of my fantasy football draft I also think about "value". We all have a ball park idea what the first couple rounds of our fantasy football draft will look like in our heads. After that is the steak and potatoes, especially in the mid to late rounds where the diamonds in the rough are stumbled on. Pink Floyd said "the sun is the same in a relative way but your older" in the song Time. As we get older Fantasy Football has taken on huge changes and more sophisticated approaches to drafting then the ordinary standard draft with 10-12 teams with guys who sit around and draft while talking about the new Lord of the Rings movie.

For instance lets talk about 2013 PPR (Point Per Reception) League Drafts.

In a standard PPR league you will find many similarities to a standard league draft although some important variables come into play.
Any idea what Stevan Ridley did statistically last year?
He had 290 carries 1263 yards and 12 tds.
Know what else he did?
Caught 6 passes on 14 targets in 16 games.
So do you shy away from him in your PPR League? Absolutely not.
Yes. The top ten running backs this year are pretty much solidified. But are you going to gamble on a Matt Forte who may have 30-40 more catches and 8 less touchdowns then Ridley? I know I'm not.
And here is why: age, volume, durability, conference, and the touchdown vulture Michael Bush.
But that doesn't mean Ridley is higher then Rice Rice Baby, Doug Martin, J Charles, T Rich , CJ Spiller, McCoy or Reggie bush but it does reveal that sometimes the TDs will compensate for the lack of receptions and keep in mind durability also speaks volumes. If we predicated our running back rankings specifically on the ppr concept Darren Sproles would be the Vice President and we would all finish 8th in our leagues. So when drafting your RBs in your upcoming 2013 PPR draft make sure not to over compensate for certain statistics just because it's a PPR League.

Wide Receivers in the PPR format may be treated a little different then running backs. Of coarse there is the Almighty "Megatron" who is freakishly big, fast, solid, and did I mention spoon fed every Sunday. After Calvin there is another top tier of WRs in 2013: Aj Green, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, and Demaryius Thomas.

SIDE NOTE: I made a bet this year that Dez Bryant would have a better year then Megatron.

All these guys are elite WR1s in any format. That said, there still should be a pecking order or a guideline for you when picking from them.
Dez Bryant, Aj Green and Brandon Marshall are 2013 PPR monsters and are the ones who you should target first. PPR Value = targets targets and more targets. Solidified studs on good teams that do not have to share the pig skin.
Then move to D. Thomas and Julio who are also top tier talent but find themselves with company that could hurt their value. Julio has Roddy White, who a couple years ago had more targets then anyone in the league for a stretch. D Thomas also has a cast that includes Wes Welker who is a PPR Hall of Famer and Oh, Eric Decker who gets the left overs, all with only one football to go around.
So for me I want a one stud who is spoon fed, not a new hero every week.
Getting a stud WR is very key in your 2013 PPR draft but like I said before VALUE can also be found in the later rounds.
Roddy White can be had at such great value this year it is silly.

Percy Harvin fits the mold of a ppr machine but what good is he when he is sidelined? So instead of Percy target these PPR Studs for 2013: Randall Cobb, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald and Danny Amendola. Sounds like some oldies but believe me they are goodies this year in PPR.

Now lets face it, the NFL is a true vertical league. It's what attracts the fan base. Anyone this year could step up and have 80-90-100 catches and we wouldn't be surprised with this modern day Arena Football approach. So your key in 2013 for your PPR draft is to target a Stud WR but also remember that Wide receiver is deep this year so good value can be had in rounds 4-8. So in closing I would like to leave you with some of my "Value"...

My Fantasy Football 2013 PPR Sleepers this year include:

Running Backs - Giovanni Bernard, Lamar Miller, Deangelo Williams, maybe Ryan Mathews.

Wide Receivers - Antonio Brown, Cecil Shorts, Torrey smith, Ty Hilton, Alshon jeffery, Deandre Hopkins, Kenbrell Thompkins, Cordarelle Patterson.

Tight Ends - Jordan Cameron, Jared Cook, Jermichael Finley, Martellus Bennett. All great value

By: Fantasy Footballfolk @lonero_justin

The +Fantasy Football Beasthouse would like to thank Fantasy Footballfolk for taking the time to guest blog on our site. We feel it is our job to offer many different takes in all fantasy football league formats so we are very fortunate to have willing guest bloggers.