Thursday, May 24, 2012

Fantasy Football Auction Draft Strategy: The Gambler


  If you have the "Go Big or Go Home" attitude when it comes to fantasy football then "The Gambler" auction draft strategy is just for you. This strategy is named "The Gambler" because you set up your auction budget to gamble on three big name players hoping and praying that they all stay healthy hold up to their preseason ranking.
  In a standard auction draft you typically have a $200 budget to fill 14-16 roster spots focusing on the eight starting positions. If you decide to go with the gambler strategy and target three top ten players, you will roughly budget 85% of your money to get those desired players. 85% offers est $56 per player understanding you could end up spending 60, 56,52  in order to get the players desired as long as it adds up to the $170.
So the next questions becomes how do you research and study for this strategy? Well... You will need to focus your research on finding 4-5 Top 10 guys that you are wanting to draft and figure out how much each one of them is expected to go for. By doing this you are able to see what 3 guys will work best for you and also it will tell you what positions you will need to focus your sleeper research on. I say target 4-5 players because you need to be prepared with several options in case you get into a bidding war over guys and have to back off certain players. Also I bring up researching sleepers because by spending 85% of your budget on three top guys you will need to spend some time researching and finding sleepers. This could be the toughest part to this strategy because in order for this strategy to work effectively you will need to hit on some of your sleeper or garbage picks at the end of the draft.

Strategy: "The Gambler"

Definition: Gambling 85% of your budget on Three Top 10 Players and Hoping to hit on some flyers and sleepers

Budget Breakdown: Roughly 85% on Three Starters and the 15% to fill remaining positions.

Why the Gambler Works:
The gambler strategy works when the three top players that you select stay healthy and stand up to their pre season ranking. This strategy also works when you select a couple sleepers in the draft they become successful fantasy players. When you use this strategy the free agent waiver wire is your best friend. You will need to be very active on the waiver wire looking to improve your supporting cast as the year progresses.

Why the Gambler Does not Works:
The gambler strategy fails when your top three players struggle to stay healthy and or get injured leaving you with a crappy bench with little or no depth and very little trade bait. One thing to remember is that very rarely do the Top 10 rankings stay the same in fantasy football so selecting 3 Top 10 guys that you hope will score big can be very difficult.

Keeper Leagues: Keep in mind that this is not a very good strategy for keeper leagues because most likely the draft value sticks with the players and you do not want to be stuck with high price players to keep for the next year. The whole point in a keeper league is to find bargains and steals for the next year so that you have an advantage heading into the draft.

My Advice: If you think that you can target three Top 10 players that will stay healthy and remain in the Top 10 all year, I truly think that this strategy has some serious potential. You need to have some balls to pull this one off but man if you can hit on your three studs you will be looking like a Beasthouse entering the playoffs. I would recommend this strategy if you are in a league with a bunch of tight wads who are very tight with their money. You can catch them off guard and believe me when I tell you that people will get nervous when they see you land 3 Top Ten guys before they have even one starter.
If you have any fantasy football questions or comments find me on twitter @jakaz22 or find me on Google+ and I would be more than happy to answer any questions you may have.
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